Castro Valley Blvd Bike Lanes at Risk of Removal

This Monday, December 15th, the Castro Valley Municipal Advisory Council (MAC) is set to vote on a proposal that threatens regional transit connectivity and exposes the whole Alameda County to significant legal liability. The goal of the CV MAC is to remove the brand new Castro Valley Blvd bike lanes that were just completed earlier this year. They were originally installed because Castro Valley Blvd is a High-Injury Network (HIN) corridor.

Agenda Item VII reviews a report on bike counters that were installed on these new bike lanes—a flawed metric likely to be leveraged to justify removing this critical 'First Mile/Last Mile' connector to the Castro Valley BART station.

This isn't just a step backward; it is a shocking mismanagement of public funds. The Castro Valley MAC is proposing to rip out infrastructure that was recently completed with Alameda County taxpayer dollars.

1. The "Brand New" Waste of Taxpayer Money

To understand why this proposal is so egregious, we have to look at the timeline. These bike lanes on Castro Valley Boulevard were just completed during a resurfacing and restriping project in early 2025.

• The Investment: Taxpayers just paid to add these much needed bike lanes to separate car traffic from cyclists & meet basic safety standards for such a high traffic corridor.

• The Waste: If the CV MAC votes to remove them now, they are literally throwing that 2025 investment into the trash in less than a year. It sends a message that Alameda County plans its budget in 6-month increments, building safety features in the spring only to scrape them off in the winter.

2. The Data Flaw: A Tale of Two Standards

The agenda implies that the decision to remove the lanes will hinge on "Average Daily Bike Counts." This reveals a hypocritical double standard in how the County plans for cars versus how it plans for people.

The "Survivor Bias" Trap

Relying on current counts to measure demand is a fundamental error known as Survivor Bias. 

Whether the report shows 5 riders or 500, counting cyclists on unprotected bike lanes on a high-stress arterial road only tells you how many people are currently brave enough to navigate next to high-speed traffic. It does not tell you how many people want to ride but are too scared to try.

It’s like deciding not to build a bridge because you don’t see enough people swimming across the raging river.

Current counts only capture the "Strong and Fearless" (<1% of riders). They ignore the 60% of residents who are "Interested but Concerned"—families, seniors, and residents who would ride if the infrastructure remained and connected to a larger network.

The "Induced Demand" Hypocrisy (How they treat cars)

Contrast this with the glaring double standard applied to car traffic. When rush hour paralyzes our roadways, engineers don't say, 'Look, nobody is moving efficiently, so we should remove the lane.' Instead, they rely on theoretical formulas to project future car volumes, using these predictions to justify widening roads and adding capacity. This approach ignores the lack of alternatives and fuels a cycle of induced demand: new lanes don't fix traffic; they act as a magnet, inviting more people to drive until the gridlock returns. 

Yet when it comes to bicycle infrastructure, they weaponize the inverse logic: if current dangerous conditions suppress ridership, they claim 'low utilization' justifies removal. We cannot accept a planning paradigm that treats car traffic as a 'future potential to be unlocked' by massive investment, while dismissing bicycle traffic as a 'current failure to be deleted' based on the very hostility of the environment they created.

• For Cars: They build the infrastructure first, anticipating that drivers will show up.

• For Bikes: They demand the riders show up first, risking their lives in unsafe conditions, before they justify the infrastructure.

We cannot accept a policy that treats car traffic as a "potential to be unlocked" while treating bike traffic as a "nuisance to be counted."

3. A Legal Minefield for Taxpayers